A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
